📊Monte Carlo Retirement Calculator
Simulate retirement outcomes with market volatility analysis
What is Monte Carlo Simulation?
Monte Carlo is a statistical technique that runs thousands of different scenarios with random market returns to estimate the probability of your money lasting through retirement. Unlike simple calculators that assume fixed returns, it captures the real uncertainty of financial markets.
Interpreting Success Rate
A 90%+ success rate means in 90% of simulated scenarios, your money lasted through retirement. 75-89% is acceptable but may need adjustments. Below 75% strongly suggests rethinking your plan - save more, spend less, or work longer.
Understanding Volatility
Volatility measures how much returns can vary. A 15% volatility means returns can typically vary ±15% from expected. Higher volatility means more uncertainty. Pre-retirement portfolio can tolerate more volatility; post-retirement generally benefits from a more conservative portfolio.
4% Rule and Withdrawal Rate
The 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% of your portfolio in year one (adjusting for inflation after) would historically last 30 years. The implied withdrawal rate shows how much you're planning to withdraw. Rates above 4-5% significantly increase the risk of running out of money.
Financial Accuracy
Disclaimer: This calculator provides estimates for informational purposes only. This is not financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor for advice specific to your situation.